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Lamine Yamal wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

premise last verified 5h ago

EHIQ

16%

Polymarket

10%

gap vs market

—

The call vs the market, dated

Graded opening 16% (Sep 12). The opening is the graded value. Market at open (Polymarket): 17%.

Market has since moved down to 10% · -7.0pp from open

EHIQ vs market over time · 46 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

Machine proposal, blind to the market: a split-champion year — Spain won the WC but FIFA's awards went to Rodri (Golden Ball), Simón, Cubarsí, so voters leave the winning side (2010/2014/2018 pattern). Yamal 1G/0A in 615 WC minutes post-hamstring. Kane is the branch's profile (61 club goals, domestic treble, Golden Shoe, 6 WC goals, England 3rd). Yamal's band 0.15-0.18 on the 2025 runner-up bloc + La Liga title, discounted for the quiet WC and intra-Spain vote-splitting.

Opened

September 12, 2026

Expected resolution

October 31, 2026

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