Graham's SC Senate seat stays Republican, decided in the Aug 11 GOP primary by Trump's endorsement

STRUCTURAL / THESIS CALL. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) died July 11, 2026 as the certified June-9 Republican nominee. Under SC Code 7-11-55 the replacement nominee was chosen by a special GOP primary of the voters (Aug 11, runoff Aug 25) — and the outcome is now known: his sister DARLINE GRAHAM, appointed to the seat by Gov. McMaster July 13 (the first woman to represent SC in the Senate), led the 10-candidate primary at 33% and WON the Aug 25 runoff over Rep. Ralph Norman, 52.5% to 47.6%, with Trump's endorsement and a Myrtle Beach rally — exactly the endorsement-decides-the-sprint path this call priced. She faces Democrat Annie Andrews, a Charleston pediatrician, on Nov 3. South Carolina has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998, so the seat stays Republican in the base case — but a late-September poll had Graham only +1 over Andrews, which is the watch: if the tight polls hold into October, this level comes down. EHIQ 87% vs Polymarket 86.5%.