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Republicans hold the Senate in the 2026 midterms
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
no liveness subject (nothing to death-check)
Held — not derived from race calls; last reviewed Sep 2
EHIQ
68%
(60-76%)
gap vs market
+68.0pp
EHIQ above market
The number above is the forecast (polls only)
Language: no read
The call vs the market, dated
Graded opening 68% (Sep 2). The opening is the graded value. Market at open (Polymarket): 50%.
Market has since moved down to 0% · -49.5pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 90 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Democrats need a net of 4 seats on a map with only 2 Republican-held seats in genuinely competitive states (Maine, and the open North Carolina seat); the next tier (Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Florida) all went for Trump by 8 or more. Needing 2 of 4 long shots on top of sweeping the competitive pair prices well below 0.50. GRADING-LAG RISK: control can hang on one slow state; this is a record-builder whose grade may land after the 11/3 gate.
- 1.D needs net +4 on a 2-seat competitive map
- 2.next tier all Trump +8 or more
- 3.$1.7M venue volume behind the lower price
Opened
September 2, 2026
Expected resolution
November 3, 2026
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