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ElectionActive
Republicans hold the Senate in the 2026 midterms
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
68%
(60-76%)
Edge
+29.5pp
EHIQ above market
The call vs the market, dated
EHIQ called this at 68% on September 2, 2026 when Polymarket was at 50%.
Market has since moved down to 39% · -11.0pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 16 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Democrats need a net of 4 seats on a map with only 2 Republican-held seats in genuinely competitive states (Maine, and the open North Carolina seat); the next tier (Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Florida) all went for Trump by 8 or more. Needing 2 of 4 long shots on top of sweeping the competitive pair prices well below 0.50. GRADING-LAG RISK: control can hang on one slow state; this is a record-builder whose grade may land after the 11/3 gate.
- 1.D needs net +4 on a 2-seat competitive map
- 2.next tier all Trump +8 or more
- 3.$1.7M venue volume behind the faded price
Opened
September 2, 2026
Expected resolution
November 3, 2026
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