Mary Peltola defeats Dan Sullivan (Alaska Senate 2026)
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska US Senate election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 67% on Sep 20, 2026, market was 60% at open.
+The argument — why we think itthe thesis and the reasoning behind the call
Alaska: Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan by 2.2 points in the final ranked-choice round, the weighted average of 4 polls taken since early September (Peltola 51.1, Sullivan 48.9). Allowing for polling error the size Senate polls have run since 1998, that gives Peltola about a 63% chance. EHIQ 63%. No language read carries weight in this number. A candidate-only language read, scored speaker by speaker and checked against press quotes, is being rebuilt and will appear here as commentary.
Resolution source: AP call of the 2026 Alaska US Senate race after the final ranked-choice round; official Alaska state certification if no AP/Fox/NBC consensus call by 2026-12-15.
+The evidence — markets, embeds, data notestracked markets, embed code, and the as-of/liveness detail
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