Electionelection window
ME Senate — Collins (R) retention
Will Susan Collins (R) retain her Maine Senate seat in 2026?
EHIQ
39%
on: Will Susan Collins (R) retain her Maine Senate seat in 2026?
Polymarket
price stale -- not shown
Divergence
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Provenance: EHIQ 50% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), no market at registration.
+The argument — why we think itthe thesis and the reasoning behind the call
Maine: Susan Collins trails Troy Jackson by 1.9 points in the weighted average of 16 polls taken since early September (Jackson 50.8, Collins 48.9). Allowing for polling error the size Senate polls have run since 1998, that gives Collins about a 39% chance to hold the seat. EHIQ 39%. No language read carries weight in this number. In the 6 Oct debate, scored speaker by speaker and checked against press quotes for both candidates, Collins read stronger than Jackson (-1.31 against -1.98). It is shown as commentary.
+The evidence — markets, embeds, data notestracked markets, embed code, and the as-of/liveness detail
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premise last verified 5h ago