Peggy Flanagan (DFL) wins the 2026 Minnesota Senate election
Will the Democratic (DFL) nominee, Peggy Flanagan, win the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 72% on Oct 18, 2026, market was 87% at open.
+The argument — why we think itthe thesis and the reasoning behind the call
Minnesota's open Senate seat: Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (DFL) against former broadcaster Michele Tafoya (R), both nominated in the August 11 primary. The number comes from the polls. Eleven public polls since September 4 average Flanagan 50.7, Tafoya 46.9, a 3.8-point lead, and at a 6.5-point polling error that puts Flanagan at 72%. The market prices her higher; we have no evidence the market lacks, since this is a polls-only base with no EHIQ-specific input. No Flanagan-Tafoya debate has been scored, so there is no language read yet.
Resolution source: AP/Fox/NBC general-election call for the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election (2026-11-03); if they don't all call it for the same candidate, the official certification. The Polymarket resolution rule for minnesota-senate-election-winner.
+The evidence — markets, embeds, data notestracked markets, embed code, and the as-of/liveness detail
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