Electionelection window
GA Senate — Ossoff retention
Will Jon Ossoff (D) retain his Georgia Senate seat in 2026?
EHIQ
92%
on: Will Jon Ossoff (D) retain his Georgia Senate seat in 2026?
Polymarket
price stale -- not shown
Divergence
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Provenance: EHIQ 62% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), no market at registration; documented open 55%.
+The argument — why we think itthe thesis and the reasoning behind the call
Georgia: Jon Ossoff leads Mike Collins by 9.1 points in the weighted average of 8 polls taken since early September (Ossoff 54.4, Collins 45.3). Allowing for polling error the size Senate polls have run since 1998, that gives Ossoff about a 92% chance to hold the seat. EHIQ 92%. No language read carries weight in this number. In the 13 Oct debate, scored speaker by speaker and checked against press quotes for both candidates, Collins read stronger than Ossoff (-0.23 against -0.51). It is shown as commentary.
+The evidence — markets, embeds, data notestracked markets, embed code, and the as-of/liveness detail
Markets
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