The Midterm Board
EHIQ election calls, priced against the named venue and ranked by how far our probability sits from the market price. Calls under a public hold are not listed. Each call is dated at open, and linked to the venue where we record the market page. Election day is November 3, 2026.
Prices come from the same refresh that feeds our weekly digest. They are snapshots, not live quotes. A price older than 6 hours (election window) is withheld rather than shown stale. The full cross-category board lives on /divergence, and resolved public election calls are graded on /record.
Live election calls
12 trackedWill Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska US Senate election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 67% on Sep 20, 2026, market was 60% at open.
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ 4% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), market mid was 4%; documented open 3%.
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ 4% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), market mid was 5%; documented open 2%.
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ 10% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), market mid was 15%; documented open 8%.
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Provenance: EHIQ 16% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), market mid was 20%.
Will Jon Ossoff (D) retain his Georgia Senate seat in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ 62% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), no market at registration; documented open 55%.
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race by November 2, 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 22% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 26% at open.
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 47% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 42% at open.
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 57% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 45% at open.
Will the Democratic (DFL) nominee, Peggy Flanagan, win the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 72% on Oct 18, 2026, market was 87% at open.
Will a Republican win the South Carolina US Senate seat (Lindsey Graham vacancy) in the November 3, 2026 election?
Provenance: EHIQ 87% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), market mid was 81%.
Will Susan Collins (R) retain her Maine Senate seat in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ 50% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), no market at registration.
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