Gavin Newsom — 2028 Democratic nomination
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
EHIQ reads a higher probability than Polymarket by 1.2pp. What settles it: resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25 · resolves 2028-08-31.
Provenance: EHIQ 16% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), market mid was 20%.
+The argument — why we think itthe thesis and the reasoning behind the call
His Polymarket nomination odds have fallen from a ~39% peak just after Prop 50 passed (Nov 2025) to ~15% (Kalshi ~14%, as of 2026-09-26), with the freed probability fragmenting across AOC/Ossoff/Harris/Shapiro rather than consolidating behind one rival. UPDATED TIQ FIELD READ (2026-09-27, n=31 fresh speeches): the field's register leader on current speech is JON OSSOFF (+0.03 mean, the only non-negative register in the field) — but his 2028 path is conditional on holding Georgia in 2026, and that is the race the house prices most contrarian to the market (that separate call, senate-ga-ossoff-2026, was EHIQ 62% vs the market's 95.5% on Ossoff holding Georgia as of 2026-09-27). Josh Shapiro's register is mixed (highs to +2.0, lows to -5.3) and survivable. Pete Buttigieg — the May build's register leader — has FADED on current speech (all 9 scored speeches negative, mean -1.76, one -8.5). AOC is floored at the progressive-lane ceiling with two catastrophic reads (-9.7, -10.0). EHIQ 16% vs Polymarket 16.1% (as of 2026-10-03).
+The evidence — markets, embeds, data notestracked markets, embed code, and the as-of/liveness detail
<iframe src="https://eventhorizoniq.com/embed/call/newsom-2028-dem-nomination" width="560" height="150" frameborder="0" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" loading="lazy" title="EHIQ: Gavin Newsom — 2028 Democratic nomination"></iframe>