maverickPremium/MEDIUM confidence
Domestic Capital Rotation Index
Capital rotation composite tracking domestic private activity. Inversely correlated with digital assets and alternative financials at 30-day lag. HIGH = bearish for correlated assets.
ELEVATED
5h ago
State History
20 readings|1 state change|ELEVATED: 55%NORMAL: 45%
Track record
ELEVATED
1 fires since 2021 · 0% hit · median 21d +21.6% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
EXTREME
1 fires since 2021 · 0% hit · median 21d +1.5% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
LOW
3 fires since 2021 · 33% hit · median 21d -7.2% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
NORMAL
3 fires since 2021 · 33% hit · median 21d -5.0% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
RISING
1 fires since 2021 · 100% hit · median 21d -15.1% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Fires Together With
Polymarket IQ
43d overlapELEVATED
Promotional Yield Anomaly
43d overlapSEVERE
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
42d overlapRISING
Eth Liquid Staking Ratio
40d overlapELEVATED
CROSSFIRE Offshore Crypto
39d overlapWARMING
Eth Gas Fee Regime
38d overlapRISING
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.