cryptoPremium/MEDIUM confidence
Panic Capitulation
Triple-stress convergence: shorts crowded + extreme fear + equity panic. Maximum capitulation = contrarian buy. Multiplicative: Funding negative × Fear extreme × VIX spike.
NORMAL
Live
Since Jun 8, 20261 person watching9 total views
Track record
ELEVATED
9 fires since 2023 · 67% hit · median 21d -3.8% on BTC-USD
validated
NORMAL
11 fires since 2023 · 55% hit · median 21d +3.0% on BTC-USD
no-content
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Fires Together With
VIX Regime Sensor
15d overlapSTABLE
Commodity Basket Stress Sensor
12d overlapSTABLE
Real Rate Regime Sensor
11d overlapSEVERE
TVL Momentum
6d overlapSTABLE
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
4d overlapUNKNOWN
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
3d overlapRISING
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.