{
 "file": "TAPE_v0_policy_inputs_2026-10-16",
 "captured_at": "2026-10-16",
 "for_tape": "TAPE_v0_2026-09-10",
 "purpose": "SCORING_POLICY v1.1 inputs for the 148 TAPE_v0 rows, captured read-only from Neon prediction_calls on 2026-10-16. The tape itself is unchanged; v2 verdicts = tape row (status, actual_outcome, resolution) + these inputs, through src/lib/policy-verdict.ts.",
 "fields": [
  "id",
  "ehiq_prob_at_open",
  "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed",
  "ehiq_at_open_provenance",
  "rationale_hit"
 ],
 "public_revision": {
  "revision": "public-r3",
  "revised_at": "2026-10-30",
  "authority": "Eric Jackson, 2026-10-30 (correction B)",
  "what_changed": "On each row listed in withheld_ids_in_file, every field not listed in fields_kept_on_withheld_rows is set to null (slug is set to \"withheld\") and the row carries withheld:true with withheld_label. The row is kept so every figure recomputes from this file. No other row or field is changed from public-r2.",
  "change_from_previous_revision": "public-r2 plus one withheld row.",
  "fields_kept_on_withheld_rows": [
   "id"
  ],
  "withheld_ids_in_file": [
   261
  ],
  "held_fields_withheld": [
   "ehiq_prob_at_open",
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit"
  ],
  "held_ids_in_file": [
   30,
   31,
   33,
   34,
   36,
   37,
   38,
   40,
   41,
   42,
   43,
   59,
   60,
   61,
   73,
   89,
   97,
   102,
   148,
   151,
   216,
   217,
   218,
   219,
   235,
   236,
   237,
   253
  ],
  "held_rows_in_file": 28,
  "original_file": "TAPE_v0_policy_inputs_2026-10-16.json",
  "original_file_sha256": "809a0b6b81a2beb1ce1f8caebb17c139bf019aececacc12310244d2853fe2287",
  "supersedes": "TAPE_v0_policy_inputs_2026-10-16_public-r2_2026-10-28.json",
  "supersedes_sha256": "de34077361ec76114735b1d13a4ef8596f95a38ed66e940367b59ffa811d9051",
  "original_retained": "The original file and every earlier revision are retained unchanged in restricted storage; they are not published.",
  "header_row_sha256_covers": "row_sha256 in the header (where present) is carried from the original file and covers the original rows, computed as sha256 of json.dumps(rows, sort_keys=True) with Python defaults. It does not match the rows of this revision, nor of public-r1 or public-r2, whose withheld fields differ from the original.",
  "rows_sha256_this_revision": "1f04cc06a2ac9e061e159209894f20ec361e2acbab3f911d219ec8f3f91a6cca"
 },
 "rows": [
  {
   "id": 1,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.3,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 2,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.66,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": true
  },
  {
   "id": 3,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.17,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 4,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.2,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": true
  },
  {
   "id": 5,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.45,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 6,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.7,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 7,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.2,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": 0.38,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 8,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.1,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 9,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.85,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 10,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.75,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 11,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.7,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 12,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.75,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 13,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.7,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 14,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.75,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 15,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.7,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 16,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.75,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 17,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.47,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 18,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.62,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": 0.55,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed [ehiq side: earliest documented value 0.55, thesis point 2026-05-22 '55% -> 62%', provenance log id 86; token order fixed by eric-stamp KO 2026-10-16. Prior text: RE-ANCHORED 2026-10-06 per eric-stamp: market leg priced from Polymarket event 57642 (verified via gamma-api; previously market_prob_at_open=null, no basis). Basis: September poll stack per thesis.]",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 19,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 20,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "RECONSTRUCTED 2026-10-06 per eric-stamp: basis from the September 2026 rebuild doc; market leg declared ABSENT (no winner market on any venue — routes in REGISTER_EVIDENCE_PACK_2026-10-06.md).",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 21,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 22,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.75,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 23,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.78,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 24,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.62,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 25,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.7,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 26,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 29,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
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   "id": 30,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 31,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 32,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.1,
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   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null
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   "id": 33,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 34,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 35,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.04,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": 0.02,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 36,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 37,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 38,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 39,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.04,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": 0.025,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 40,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 41,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 42,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 43,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 44,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.38,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
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  {
   "id": 45,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.33,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
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  {
   "id": 46,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.85,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 47,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.15,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
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  {
   "id": 48,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.28,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
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  {
   "id": 49,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.2,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
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  {
   "id": 50,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.1,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
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  {
   "id": 51,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.52,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": 0.44,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": false
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  {
   "id": 52,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.35,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": 0.3,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": false
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  {
   "id": 53,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.25,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": true
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  {
   "id": 54,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.11,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": 0.08,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": false
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  {
   "id": 55,
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   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": 0.05,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": false
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  {
   "id": 56,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.08,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
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  {
   "id": 57,
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   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
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  {
   "id": 58,
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   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 59,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 60,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 61,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 62,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.28,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 63,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.2,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 64,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.1,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 65,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.02,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
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  {
   "id": 66,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.62,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 67,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.56,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": 0.33,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null
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  {
   "id": 68,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.619,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 69,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": 0.55,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 70,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 71,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.35,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 72,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.4,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 73,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 74,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.66,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": true
  },
  {
   "id": 75,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": true
  },
  {
   "id": 76,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.8,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 77,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.12,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 78,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.6,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 79,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.72,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 80,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 81,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 84,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 85,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 86,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.6,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 87,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 88,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.72,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 89,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 90,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.6,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 91,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 92,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.75,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 93,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 94,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.9,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 95,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": 0.633,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 96,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.4,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": 0.4,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "reconstructed",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 97,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 98,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.3,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 99,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.9,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 100,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.82,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 101,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.16,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 102,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 103,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.4,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 104,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.88,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 105,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.86,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 106,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 107,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.87,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 108,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.25,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 109,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 110,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 111,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.62,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 112,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.52,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 113,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.42,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "unverifiable",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 114,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.7,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 115,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.6,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 116,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.42,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 117,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 138,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.85,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 139,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": null,
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 142,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": null,
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 143,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": null,
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 144,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": null,
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 145,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": null,
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 146,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.45,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "Eric Jackson, stated 2026-08-13",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 147,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.92,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "human research 2026-08-16; anchored to the NFL ten-twelfths (24/32) transfer threshold and recent comps: Commanders $6.05B and Broncos approved unanimously, Raiders $11B approved",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 148,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "human research 2026-08-16, anchored to DOJ entry practice post-comment-close and the CVS/Aetna extended-review precedent. NOTE at_open=0.72 was a pre-publication draft value; the PUBLISHED number is 0.55 (see thesis_points and the lock record)",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 149,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.8,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "human research 2026-08-16; anchored to federal civil reversal rates (under ~11-16%, affirmance ~84-89%) and the harder-to-reverse posture of an opinion-ground dismissal. CONDITIONAL ON A RULING: the 2d Cir runs ~15 months, slowest circuit, from an April 2026 fully-briefed posture",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 150,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "human research 2026-08-16; NO REFERENCE CLASS EXISTS for 'deal reported as expected is announced within N months'. Judgment only, the least anchored of the five. Context: $1.2B JV, multiples settled to 12-18x from an 18-25x peak",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 151,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "human research 2026-08-16; anchored to the unanimous 30-0 exploration vote 2026-03-25, the 23/30 final-vote threshold, reporting of a final vote 'later this year', and the 2028-29 target season creating schedule pressure",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 152,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.72,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "human research. OPENED 2026-08-15 at 0.72 on the EventHorizonIQ Substack ('He sold the Lakers, he doesn't have to sell the Dodgers'), REVISED 2026-08-17 to 0.45 (https://eventhorizoniq.substack.com/p/the-lakers-covered-a-third-of-what) after reading the Q1 2026 statutory quarterly statements for NAIC 79065 and 83607, which show the combined affiliated total rising $976,106,653 in the quarter rather than falling. ⚠️ ROW WRITTEN 2026-08-17, 2 days after the open it records. opened_at is backdated to the publication date because that is the date the claim became public; created_at carries the true write time. The delay is a recording failure, not a reconstruction: no price, market or estimate was recovered after the fact, and 0.72 is quoted verbatim from the published piece.",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 156,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.9,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 157,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.92,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 162,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": null,
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 191,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.864,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 192,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.1,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 193,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.499,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "verified",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 216,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "Set 2026-08-23 from the 2026Q1L statutory statements (as of 2026-03-31), the FHLB Indianapolis 10-Q filings, the AM Best action of 2026-07-31 and Bloomberg of 2026-08-18. No reference class exists for any of these five probabilities; each is a judgment and the published copy says so.",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 217,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "Set 2026-08-23 from the 2026Q1L statutory statements (as of 2026-03-31), the FHLB Indianapolis 10-Q filings, the AM Best action of 2026-07-31 and Bloomberg of 2026-08-18. No reference class exists for any of these five probabilities; each is a judgment and the published copy says so.",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 218,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "Set 2026-08-23 from the 2026Q1L statutory statements (as of 2026-03-31), the FHLB Indianapolis 10-Q filings, the AM Best action of 2026-07-31 and Bloomberg of 2026-08-18. No reference class exists for any of these five probabilities; each is a judgment and the published copy says so.",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 219,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "Set 2026-08-23 from the 2026Q1L statutory statements (as of 2026-03-31), the FHLB Indianapolis 10-Q filings, the AM Best action of 2026-07-31 and Bloomberg of 2026-08-18. No reference class exists for any of these five probabilities; each is a judgment and the published copy says so.",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 220,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "Set 2026-08-23 from the 2026Q1L statutory statements (as of 2026-03-31), the FHLB Indianapolis 10-Q filings, the AM Best action of 2026-07-31 and Bloomberg of 2026-08-18. No reference class exists for any of these five probabilities; each is a judgment and the published copy says so.",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 233,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.9,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "Set 2026-08-30 from the named reference class of post-ratification NFL closings (Commanders 2023: 1 day; Broncos 2022: days; Panthers 2018: about 7 weeks, the slow case) and the unanimous 2026-08-26 owners vote. Search receipt: nfl.com and ESPN closing reports for the class; nfl.com / Yahoo Sports for the 2026-08-26 vote.",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 234,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.8,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "Set 2026-08-30 from named construction: Apple's own event announcement (9to5Mac, 2026-08-26), Gurman 'main attraction' / on-track reporting, Kuo 2H26 mass-production call. Manifold crowd odds ~96% noted as sentiment, not the basis. Near-neighbor disclosure: Polymarket lists the RELEASE question ('foldable iPhone before 2027'); no venue lists this announcement-at-event question, so no_market is the true declaration.",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 235,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "Set 2026-08-30 from named construction: league milestone record 2025-03 through 2026-06, Silver Berlin remarks 2026-01, ESPN/The Athletic bid reporting 2026-04.",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 236,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "Set 2026-08-30 from the post-2024 NFL minority-sale class (5 closed deals incl. Giants/Koch $10B) plus the 2026-08-26 Seahawks $9.612B reprice and the 2025 estate-tax exemption sunset.",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 237,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "Set 2026-08-30 from named construction: PIF exit (announced 2026-04-30), O'Neil investor announcement 2026-08-05, ESPN-sourced Goldthorpe/BC Partners naming 2026-08-19, non-binding term sheet with September target. Reference texture: the 2023 PGA-PIF framework that never closed.",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 250,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "desk batch CALL_BATCH_next_2026-09-01.md, flags cleared 09-02, Eric approved 2026-09-02",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 251,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.45,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "desk batch CALL_BATCH_next_2026-09-01.md, flags cleared 09-02, Eric approved 2026-09-02",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 252,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.68,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "desk batch CALL_BATCH_next_2026-09-01.md, flags cleared 09-02, Eric approved 2026-09-02",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 253,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "desk batch CALL_BATCH_next_2026-09-01.md, flags cleared 09-02, Eric approved 2026-09-02",
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "held": true,
   "held_label": "Held: number not shown"
  },
  {
   "id": 254,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.95,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": "consensus documentation 2026-09-02 pre-decision: Reuters 35/35 hold; CORRA OIS ~95-99% hold, ~1-5% hike, cut unpriced; CPI 3.0% Jul; Q2 GDP ~3.4%; U6.4%; Macklem oil-inflation remarks",
   "rationale_hit": null
  },
  {
   "id": 261,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open": null,
   "ehiq_prob_at_open_reconstructed": null,
   "ehiq_at_open_provenance": null,
   "rationale_hit": null,
   "withheld": true
  }
 ]
}