Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US presidential election?

Conditional on 2026 GA Senate retention (EHIQ 62% to retain per senate-ga-ossoff-2026 entry). If he wins big in 2026, becomes credible 2028 dark horse. Polymarket 3.8% now ALIGNED with EHIQ post-SEM-build. SEM v1.2 D-nomination = 16.85% (poll baseline 2-3% Ossoff share × long-lead compression x0.6 + withdrawal multiplier 0.40 reflecting bimodal Senate-vs-presidency path conditional on 2026 outcome). Apples-to-apples presidency: 16.85% × ~35% general electability with first-term-Senator-jump-discount ≈ 5.9%. 50% damping from prior 2.5% baseline: 2.5 + 0.5*(5.9-2.5) ≈ 4.2% → 4%. Note: separate `sem_ga_senate_ossoff_2026.json` handles the 2026 GA Senate retention question (ensemble 82.36%).

EHIQ probability 4% at open → 4% now (never revised). The number has not moved since the call opened.

Resolution expected 2028-11-07. The resolution rule and source are stamped on the full research page.

No structured basis memo is on record for this call — the probability traces to the model row alone.