Earnings alerts / the tape
The alert tape
Every pre-earnings alert the service has fired, timestamped before the print and graded against its benchmark at frozen windows. Append-only: a miss is never edited, relabeled, or removed. Grading protocol: SPEC §6 (frozen windows, sector-ETF benchmarks, leak check, clustering correction, one primary endpoint).
No performance claim is being made. The frozen rule: no "works" claim before 40 graded alerts with binomial p < 0.05, and the effect must survive excluding sub-$300M names. Currently graded: 0 alerts at the T+5 window. Until then this page is a ledger, not a scoreboard.
Leak check CAR[alert, E−1]
+0.0%
mean over 0 alerts. Must stay ≈ 0 — a positive leak means the alerts are riding momentum, not predicting.
T+5 early read
n/a
no graded alerts yet
T+30 primary endpoint
pending
The single primary endpoint (CAR[E+2, E+30]). Grades land 30 days after each print.
| Alert date | Ticker | Earnings | Signal | z | Call | Benchmark | CAR T+5 | CAR T+30 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No alerts fired yet. The first Q3-season alerts land here, graded, hit or miss. | |||||||||
What this edge is, and what it costs
The alert reads management language against each company's own baseline and fires when the prior quarter is an extreme. The edge, if it holds, is the post-earnings drift family — a small, low-coverage anomaly. Two honest prices are baked in:
- Publication decay. Published anomalies attenuate — McLean & Pontiff (2016) measured roughly a one-third decline out-of-sample. Any forward expectation shown here carries that haircut; nothing on this page is marketed at its in-sample size.
- Coverage. Alerts fire only where a 12-16 quarter language baseline exists — large, liquid names with years of calls. Anything under $300M market cap is excluded from every claim, because grading illiquidity is not grading skill.
Dry-run rows are labeled and were never sent to subscribers. Live rows were delivered before the print. Both are graded identically and neither is ever removed.