Verify the EHIQ prediction record
This page shows the state of our forecast registration chain. Today it is incomplete. The 110 existing entries were reconstructed on 2026-07-26 from stored values, many of them after the outcome was already known, and calls created since then are not registered. Treat the chain as a reconstruction, not as proof of when any forecast was made. A gated, externally anchored registry is being specified.
As of 2026-10-24 the database does not enforce append-only on this chain, there is no public registry export, and there is no public anchor repo. Until those exist, the chain can be audited on request; it cannot yet be checked without trusting us.
Two kinds of record
- Historical, reconstructed: the 110 entries in the chain below. They were written after the fact from stored values and are not evidence of when a forecast was made.
- Prospectively registered (registered before the outcome could be known): none yet. None will be claimed until the gated registry is live.
Analysis plan (pre-registered methodology)
Registry hash-chain head (reconstructed entries)
External anchor
How verification will work once the export and anchor are published
- A downloadable registry export is not yet published. Until it is, the chain can be audited on request.
- Recompute each row's hash = sha256(canonical claim | previous hash); confirm the chain is unbroken and ends at the head above.
- Verify the OpenTimestamps proof for the head with ots verify — it timestamps the head on the Bitcoin blockchain, which we do not control.
- A public anchor repo is not yet live. When it is, its commit will be linked above.
The prediction track record is an interim, market-referenced record. Its registration chain is a reconstruction, not a pre-registration; skill numbers are shown only with sample size and a confidence interval, labeled not-decision-grade while the sample is small.