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ElectionActive
Democrats win the 2026 Iowa governor race
Will the Democratic nominee win the 2026 Iowa governor race?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
55%
(45-65%)
Edge
-22.5pp
EHIQ below market
The call vs the market, dated
EHIQ called this at 55% on September 2, 2026 when Polymarket was at 77%.
Market has since moved up to 78% · +1.0pp toward EHIQ opposite
EHIQ vs market over time · 16 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Iowa voted R+13 for president in 2024 and has reelected Republican governors by double digits; the venue is paying full price for one strong Democratic recruit (Auditor Rob Sand) before the general-election ad war, and open-seat races in states this red have closed toward the state's federal lean in every recent cycle.
- 1.Iowa R+13 presidential 2024
- 2.open seats close toward federal lean
- 3.venue pays full price for the recruit pre-ad-war
Opened
September 2, 2026
Expected resolution
November 3, 2026
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