MacroResolvedHit

Carney USMCA concessions

Will Carney make 3 specific concessions to Trump on USMCA (predicted in advance)?

EHIQ

70%

Market

—

Edge

—

Upstream of markets

Validation milestone

Public Carney statements + USMCA negotiation events on September 1, 2025 (153 days after EHIQ posted)

3 of 3 predicted concessions occurred on schedule. EHIQ EHIQ register-on-language framework validated against macro political event.

Thesis

EHIQ register scoring of Carney's public language pre-PM and immediately post-PM identified specific concession points. Predicted 3 concessions in advance: (1) Aug 2025 tariffs, (2) post-Davos theater, (3) April 9 down-payment. All three landed.

Resolution

Outcome

YES

Resolved

September 1, 2025

3 of 3 predicted concessions occurred. EHIQ register-on-political-language framework working internationally.

Opened

April 1, 2025