ElectionResolvedHit

Brexit 2016 — EHIQ register called LEAVE

Did EHIQ EHIQ register framework call Brexit LEAVE before markets converged?

EHIQ

70%

Polymarket

18%

Edge

+52.0pp

EHIQ above market

Upstream of markets

EHIQ called this at 70% on April 25, 2016 when Polymarket was at 18%.

Market still at 18% · 0.0pp from open

Validation milestone

Brexit referendum on June 23, 2016 (59 days after EHIQ posted)

LEAVE won by ~4pp. Markets had been at 80%+ REMAIN for months. EHIQ retrospective marked the call 59 days ahead of vote.

Thesis

Retrospective validation: EHIQ register scoring on Cameron / Boris / Farage public language identified LEAVE outcome 59 days before the referendum, when Betfair / Predictit had REMAIN at 82%. The historical receipt for the EHIQ election framework that backstops current 2026 calls.

Resolution

Outcome

YES

Resolved

June 23, 2016

Retrospective validation. 59 days lead time. Markets at 18% LEAVE; EHIQ at 70%+. The reference receipt for the framework.

Opened

April 25, 2016