ElectionActive

Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election (runoff 2026-10-25)

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

premise not yet verified

EHIQ

80%

Polymarket

—

live market →

Edge

—

The call vs the market, dated

EHIQ called this at 80% on October 6, 2026 when the market was at 84%.

Thesis

Market anchor (0.842, as-of 2026-10-06) + base-rate leg (R1 leader 7/7 in runoffs since 1989) with a DECLARED -4.2pp haircut for cascade-assumption risk (post-R1 extension 28.7pp->68.7pp prices landslide momentum + minor-candidate flows + bias band partly self-priced). Language leg DIAGNOSTIC ONLY (Usage Doctrine v1, declared class - no additive probability mass; PT weights unvalidated pending the native re-derivation). FOR THE RECORD.

Opened

October 6, 2026

Expected resolution

October 25, 2026

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