ElectionResolvedHit

Biden 2024 — collapse predicted at Hur interview

Will Biden withdraw from 2024 race, predicted from Hur interview language?

premise not yet verified

EHIQ

75%

Polymarket

15%

Edge

+60.0pp

EHIQ above market

The call vs the market, dated

Opened February 1, 2024. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.

Validation milestone

Biden withdraws from 2024 race on July 21, 2024 (171 days after EHIQ posted)

Biden withdrew 4 months after EHIQ Hur-interview-language call. Polymarket re-priced from 15% to >80% withdrawal probability.

Thesis

EHIQ register scoring of Biden's Hur interview language identified collapse markers 4 months before mainstream polls reflected the trajectory. EHIQ called the withdrawal sequence in advance.

Resolution

Outcome

YES

Resolved

July 21, 2024

4 months ahead of polls. EHIQ register-on-interview-language called the collapse.

Opened

February 1, 2024