David Eby's NDP wins the most seats in the 2026 BC election

NEW CALL 2026-09-27: Polymarket prices David Eby's NDP to win the most seats in the October 24 B.C. election at 50 cents — a coin flip — while the September 24 Angus Reid poll has the Conservatives ahead 43-35. The register sides with the market against the poll: across spontaneous speech scored tonight, Eby reads mixed-positive (mean momentum +0.06; his UBCM address +1.83 with confidence +9.89 is the strongest single read in either corpus — the Trump-threat framing is working in his language even as two-thirds of voters pan the snap call) while Lorne Doerkson, seven days into an interim leadership, reads thin and neutral-to-negative (-0.34). Calibrated on the 20-race leader-margin logistic, Eby leads at a coin-flip level: 49%. Control pass: a shared poll-reaction video scored identically in both corpora and two Doerkson archive items (pre-leadership footage) removed — margin narrows from 0.40 to 0.18, direction unchanged, conviction thin. Caveats: Doerkson is a 7-day-old interim leader (thin, archive-contaminated corpus — the thinnest leg in this cycle); BC votes party, not premier; and a snap election 27 days out means the register is reading the very first week of the campaign. If the Conservatives win the most seats, the register read an unforced error (the unpopular snap call) as a draw — and we say so at full size. EHIQ 49% vs Polymarket 50%.