Policy Expectation Dislocation

Composite measure of policy/regulatory belief instability (belief jumps + dispersion across policy-tagged events). When this rises, policy outcomes and expectations are diverging, increasing regime uncertainty.

PRIMARY

Regime Active

PROBABILITY

32.4%

DISPERSION

±41.6pp

VELOCITY

-3.12pp/d

Belief Signal + DispersionMERGED

Wider band = more market disagreement. Rising line + widening band = fragile conviction.

Probability

Uncertainty

TIP: When the blue line rises but the shaded area widens, you're seeing "fragile conviction" — probability is up, but so is uncertainty.

Regime Risk Analysis: Transitioning regime (velocity=3.12pp/d, dispersion=41.6pp). Regime Risk measures belief instability and consensus breakdown, not outcome certainty.

Outcomes

1.Regime Active
2.Regime Inactive

Sources

EventHorizon policy/regulatory belief series (internal)

Contributors

EHIQ Research@EventHorizonIQ

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