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Macro•January 1, 2025 – January 30, 2026•
REGIME RISKSTABLE

BTC Tail Risk Regime

Historical tail-risk regime probability (data through 2026-01-30). Probability of BTC entering a convex, stress-dominated regime over a fixed horizon.

PRIMARY
Regime Active
PROBABILITY
18.0%
DISPERSION
±5.0pp
VELOCITY
+1.12pp/d
Belief Signal + DispersionMERGED

Wider band = more market disagreement. Rising line + widening band = fragile conviction.

Probability
Uncertainty

TIP: When the blue line rises but the shaded area widens, you're seeing "fragile conviction" — probability is up, but so is uncertainty.

Regime Risk Analysis: Stable regime (velocity=1.12pp/d, dispersion=5.0pp). Regime Risk measures belief instability and consensus breakdown, not outcome certainty.
Outcomes
  • 1.Regime Active
  • 2.Regime Inactive
Sources
Contributors
EHIQ Research@EventHorizonIQ

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