EventHorizonIQ
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Macro•January 1, 2026 – December 31, 2026•
REGIME RISKSTABLE

Belief Momentum Shift Regime

Aggregate measure of how fast EventHorizon beliefs are changing (velocity + acceleration across tracked events). When this rises, expectations are shifting faster than normal, increasing the risk of abrupt repricing.

PRIMARY
Regime Active
PROBABILITY
98.8%
DISPERSION
±2.1pp
VELOCITY
-0.05pp/d
Belief Signal + DispersionMERGED

Wider band = more market disagreement. Rising line + widening band = fragile conviction.

Probability
Uncertainty

TIP: When the blue line rises but the shaded area widens, you're seeing "fragile conviction" — probability is up, but so is uncertainty.

Regime Risk Analysis: Stable regime (velocity=0.05pp/d, dispersion=2.1pp). Regime Risk measures belief instability and consensus breakdown, not outcome certainty.
Outcomes
  • 1.Regime Active
  • 2.Regime Inactive
Sources
Contributors
EHIQ Research@EventHorizonIQ

Want to improve this sensor? Contribute updated probability data.

How to Contributedata/signals/belief-momentum-shift.csv