The Book
Every live call, its entry, its exit convention, and a computed state. The rule, not just the call.
No changes. 80 live calls, all inside tolerance. 2 still carry no exit rule. Next dated event: v18 model prints STRESS regime for at least 3 consecutive da, Sep 30.
78 on track · 0 near exit · 0 expired-unresolved · 2 no rule on record
unbucketed: 62 (78%)sports_ownership_control: 7 (9%)insurance_related_party: 4 (5%)us_midterms_2026: 2 (3%)music_business: 2 (3%)private_credit_opacity: 1 (1%)srxh_cero_note: 1 (1%)sports_awards: 1 (1%)
The state summary above is public. The exit conventions on each card are subscriber content. See plans or log in.
CALLNO RULE ON RECORD
Mary Peltola defeats Dan Sullivan (Alaska Senate 2026)
opened Sep 20, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule
CALLNO RULE ON RECORD
Opendoor Series K warrant early-expiration condition triggers before 2026-11-20 expiry
opened Aug 5, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule
CALLON TRACKprivate_credit_opacity
ARCC closes below $19.00 on 2026-09-18
opened Aug 13, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule
NOT COVEREDON TRACK
FDA decision (PDUFA) — RARE (Ultragenyx) UX111
opened Aug 6, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
v18 model prints STRESS regime for at least 3 consecutive days in Q3 2026
opened Jun 7, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Any candidate wins outright in Brazil's 2026 first round
opened Sep 12, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Will the merger described in Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?
opened Aug 18, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule
CALLON TRACK
Will the merger described in LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?
opened Aug 18, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule
CALLON TRACK
Will the merger described in Weatherford International plc (WFRD)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?
opened Aug 21, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Will the merger described in SOUNDHOUND AI, INC. (SOUN, SOUNW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-08) be completed on or before 2026-10-06?
opened Aug 22, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Will the merger described in NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE, NEE-PN, NEE-PS, NEE-PT, NEE-PU, NEE-PV, NEE-PW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-09) be completed on or before 2026-10-07?
opened Aug 21, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule
CALLON TRACKsrxh_cero_note
CERO repays the consolidated note in full by the October 15 maturity
opened Sep 3, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule
CALLON TRACK
Lula da Silva re-election (Brazil 2026)
opened May 10, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Flávio Bolsonaro win (Brazil 2026)
opened May 10, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Olivia Chow re-election (Toronto Mayor 2026)
opened May 10, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Brad Bradford win (Toronto Mayor 2026)
opened May 10, 2026
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CALLON TRACKsports_awards
Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or
opened Sep 2, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Lamine Yamal wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or
opened Sep 12, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Bernie Sanders endorses James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2
opened Sep 12, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Republicans win the 2026 Ohio governor race
opened Sep 12, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opened Sep 12, 2026
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CALLON TRACKus_midterms_2026
Democrats win the 2026 Iowa governor race
opened Sep 2, 2026
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CALLON TRACKus_midterms_2026
Republicans hold the Senate in the 2026 midterms
opened Sep 2, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Republicans win the 2026 Georgia governor race
opened Sep 12, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Graham's SC Senate seat stays Republican, decided in the Aug 11 GOP primary by Trump's endorsement
opened Jul 12, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
US Senate control 2026
opened Apr 19, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
US House control 2026
opened Apr 19, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
GA Senate — Ossoff retention
opened Apr 19, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
ME Senate — Collins retention
opened Apr 19, 2026
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CALLON TRACKinsurance_related_party
Delaware Life files Q3 with no further restatement of any prior period
opened Aug 23, 2026
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CALLON TRACKinsurance_related_party
Clear Spring's affiliated line prints below $5.0B in the Q3 statement
opened Aug 23, 2026
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CALLON TRACKinsurance_related_party
Delaware Life's affiliated line prints below $13.0B in the Q3 statement
opened Aug 23, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Bad Bunny is the most-streamed global artist on Spotify for 2026
opened Jun 25, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
SPCX trades below $135 IPO price before December 2026 lock-up expiry
opened Jun 12, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
SpaceX (SPCX) — 180-day lock-up close below IPO price
opened May 20, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
SpaceX (SPCX) — 6-month total return outperforms QQQ by >10pp
opened May 20, 2026
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NOT COVEREDON TRACK
FDA decision (PDUFA) — PRAX relutrigine
opened Aug 13, 2026
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CALLON TRACKsports_ownership_control
NBA approves expansion to 32 teams by Dec 31 2026
opened Aug 16, 2026
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CALLON TRACKsports_ownership_control
Walter's Chelsea minority stake sale is agreed or announced by Dec 31
opened Aug 23, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Blackstone (BX) stock closes below $150 on at least one day by EOY 2026
opened Jun 7, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
BTC closes below $50,000 on at least one day by EOY 2026
opened Jun 7, 2026
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CALLON TRACKmusic_business
Live Nation DOJ consent judgment entered by Dec 31 2026
opened Aug 16, 2026
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CALLON TRACKmusic_business
Warner/Bain announce the Red Hot Chili Peppers catalog by Dec 31 2026
opened Aug 16, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Drake v UMG — 2d Cir affirms Vargas dismissal
opened May 22, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule
CALLON TRACKsports_ownership_control
Khosla group closes the Seahawks purchase by Dec 31 2026
opened Aug 30, 2026
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CALLON TRACKsports_ownership_control
NBA awards the first NBA Europe franchises by Dec 31 2026
opened Aug 30, 2026
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CALLON TRACKsports_ownership_control
LIV Golf closes its BC Partners-led investment by Dec 31 2026
opened Aug 30, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule
CALLON TRACKsports_ownership_control
An NFL team sells a minority stake at a $10B+ valuation by Dec 31 2026
opened Aug 30, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
No Fed rate hike in 2026 (fade the hike consensus)
opened Jul 2, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Mitek (MITK) outperforms the Russell 2000 on the AI-provenance re-rate
opened Jul 13, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Intellicheck (IDN) outperforms the Russell 2000 on the AI-provenance re-rate
opened Jul 13, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Digimarc (DMRC) outperforms the Russell 2000 on the AI-provenance re-rate
opened Jul 13, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Ethereum touches $1,500 before 2027
opened Jul 2, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
GameStop acquires eBay (Cohen $125 bid)
opened May 10, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Drake top Spotify artist 2026
opened May 9, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Drake 'Iceman' Year-1 cumulative units
opened Jun 2, 2026
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CALLON TRACKinsurance_related_party
AM Best downgrades the Group 1001 Life Annuity Group below A- by June 30 2027
opened Aug 23, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Drake next deal — $1.07B all-rights forecast
opened May 20, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Microsoft and OpenAI announce material renegotiation of partnership terms by EOY 2027
opened Jun 7, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Braze (BRZE) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027
opened Jun 7, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule
CALLON TRACKsports_ownership_control
Mark Walter still controls the Los Angeles Dodgers on Dec 31 2027
opened Aug 15, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule
CALLON TRACK
Five9 (FIVN) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027
opened Jun 7, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule
CALLON TRACK
Drake exits UMG primary recording deal by EOY 2027
opened Jun 4, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule
CALLON TRACK
Apple outperforms the AI intelligence-layer basket (NVDA/MSFT/GOOGL/META) by Jan 2028
opened Jul 6, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
2028 D primary — Buttigieg outperforms Newsom
opened May 9, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Gavin Newsom — 2028 Democratic nomination
opened Jun 30, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
2028 R primary — Tucker beats Vance head-to-head (if both run)
opened May 9, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
JD Vance is overrated as the 2028 GOP favorite
opened Jul 2, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
2028 presidency — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
opened May 9, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
2028 presidency — Tucker Carlson
opened May 9, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
2028 presidency — Josh Shapiro
opened May 9, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
2028 presidency — JD Vance
opened May 9, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
2028 presidency — Kamala Harris
opened May 9, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
2028 presidency: Nikki Haley
opened May 9, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
2028 presidency — Pete Buttigieg
opened May 9, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
2028 presidency — Jon Ossoff
opened May 9, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
2028 presidency — Gavin Newsom
opened May 9, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
2028 presidency — Marco Rubio
opened May 9, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Compagnie de l'Odet — pyramid-simplification cascade
opened Jun 3, 2026
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CALLON TRACK
Drake's next deal: services/distribution, not a major
opened Jul 24, 2026
Exit convention is subscriber content. Unlock the rule