regimePremium/HIGH confidence
XRP Regime Detector (Contagion)
4-state regime for XRP powered by 22-node contagion graph (0.81 AUC) + 16 validated composites + price momentum. States: CARRY (accumulate), EXPANSION (ride), REFLEXIVE (reduce), STRESS (defensive).
REFLEXIVE
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State History
35 readings|0 state changes|REFLEXIVE: 100%
Track record
STRESS
67 fires since 2021 · 43% hit · median 21d +1.7% on BTC-USD
no-content
CARRY
59 fires since 2021 · — hit · median 21d -2.2% on BTC-USD
untested-polarity
EXPANSION
88 fires since 2021 · — hit · median 21d -1.4% on BTC-USD
untested-polarity
REFLEXIVE
105 fires since 2021 · — hit · median 21d +2.5% on BTC-USD
untested-polarity
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.