regimePremium/HIGH confidence
SOL Regime Detector (Contagion)
4-state regime for SOL powered by 22-node contagion graph (0.76 AUC) + 13 validated composites + price momentum. States: CARRY (accumulate), EXPANSION (ride), REFLEXIVE (reduce), STRESS (defensive).
STRESS
Live
State History
35 readings|3 state changes|REFLEXIVE: 57%STRESS: 43%
Track record
STRESS
61 fires since 2021 · 49% hit · median 21d +1.7% on BTC-USD
no-content
CARRY
34 fires since 2021 · — hit · median 21d -0.4% on BTC-USD
untested-polarity
EXPANSION
56 fires since 2021 · — hit · median 21d -0.3% on BTC-USD
untested-polarity
REFLEXIVE
92 fires since 2021 · — hit · median 21d +2.0% on BTC-USD
untested-polarity
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.