regimePremium/HIGH confidence
LINK Regime Detector (Contagion)
4-state regime for Chainlink powered by 22-node contagion graph (0.79 AUC) + price momentum. States: CARRY (accumulate), EXPANSION (ride), REFLEXIVE (reduce), STRESS (defensive).
REFLEXIVE
Live
State History
35 readings|2 state changes|REFLEXIVE: 97%STRESS: 3%
Track record
STRESS
64 fires since 2021 · 48% hit · median 21d +1.7% on BTC-USD
no-content
CARRY
47 fires since 2021 · — hit · median 21d +0.6% on BTC-USD
untested-polarity
EXPANSION
60 fires since 2021 · — hit · median 21d -1.3% on BTC-USD
untested-polarity
REFLEXIVE
106 fires since 2021 · — hit · median 21d +1.5% on BTC-USD
untested-polarity
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.