macroPremium/MEDIUM confidence
Global Risk Currency Barometer
7 canary currencies (CAD/AUD/SEK/KRW/NOK/GBP) + HK Property. Tracks leveraged housing economies that crack before crypto.
RISK OFF
Live
State History
42 readings|5 state changes|RISK OFF: 81%SEVERE RISK OFF: 19%
Track record
RISK OFF
9 fires since 2021 · 67% hit · median 21d -1.6% on BTC-USD
validated
NEUTRAL
8 fires since 2021 · 38% hit · median 21d -0.7% on BTC-USD
contrarian
SEVERE RISK OFF
11 fires since 2021 · 55% hit · median 21d -2.2% on BTC-USD
no-content
RISK ON
4 fires since 2021 · 50% hit · median 21d +12.8% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.