Euphoria Persistence
Detects sustained management euphoria combined with price overextension. Fires when CEO confidence is sustained at extremes for 3+ quarters AND stock is at 52-week highs.
State History
Track record
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
Elevated tone. 2+ quarters of high management confidence, near 52-week highs.
4+ quarters confirmed, extreme metrics across tone, declarative ratio, and constraint language.
No euphoria. Normal management tone and price behavior.
3+ quarters sustained, 52-week high, loosening constraint language. ORCL Sep 2025 hit this state.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.