Dead Cat Bounce
First short-side composite. Detects unsustainable BTC bounces within downtrends when yen carry trade unwinds (USDJPY falling). V4 Monte Carlo validated: 100% OOS win rate, p=0.004.
State History
Track record
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
No dead cat bounce conditions. BTC not bouncing in downtrend.
Partial conditions. Downtrend or bounce present but not both with carry unwind.
All conditions met: BTC bouncing in downtrend + USDJPY falling (carry unwind). Short signal active.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.