Credit Capitulation
Gold surge + HY spread widening + negative funding rates. Credit market stress with safe-haven bid and crypto positioning washout. V4 Monte Carlo validated: 100% OOS win rate, +19.9% avg 30d return, p=0.000.
State History
Track record
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
No credit capitulation conditions. Gold, HY spreads, and funding normal.
Partial conditions. Some credit stress visible but not fully aligned.
All conditions met: gold surging, HY spreads wide, funding negative. Credit capitulation buy signal active.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.