EventHorizon IQ
Live calls →The Proof
Every call is dated and graded on the public ledger — the wins and the misses. This page is the math behind the record: not just a hit-rate, but whether the probabilities are actually calibrated, and whether they beat the prediction markets. Real-time calls only; backtests are excluded by construction.
Record (real-time)
1-1
rate withheld — see methodology
Brier score
0.199
20% better than base rate
Discrimination (AUC)
0.76
separates hits from misses
Edge vs. market
71%
7 disagreements · +27.2pp avg realized
Are the probabilities honest?
When we say 70%, does it happen ~70% of the time? Each dot is a decile of stated probability; the dashed line is perfect calibration. Dots on the line = honest forecasts, not just lucky ones. (45 scored calls)
When we disagreed with the market
Of the 10 calls made against a live market price (Kalshi / Polymarket), we disagreed materially 7 times. When we took the other side of the market, we were right 71% of the time (95% CI 36%–92%) — an average realized edge of +27.2pp per call over trading the market at its own price.
By methodology
| Method | N | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| unlabeled | 22 | — | 0.229 |
| sem_only | 14 | — | 0.225 |
| manual | 6 | — | 0.087 |
| tiq_only | 1 | — | 0.014 |
| tiq_sem | 1 | — | 0.116 |
| multi_engine | 1 | — | 0.116 |
Performance & equity curve
Performance and the equity curve are private to EHIQ members. The predictions record above is graded fully in public.
Append-only. Calls are never edited or deleted after posting. Calibration is computed over real-time calls only; a right outcome reached via wrong reasoning is graded a calibration note, not a clean hit. This is not financial advice.