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NC Senate — Tillis retention
Will Thom Tillis (R) retain his North Carolina Senate seat in 2026?
EHIQ
65%
(60-70%)
Polymarket
—
Edge
—
—
Thesis
Tillis won 2020 by 1.7%. EHIQ register read shows confident, grounded register with no desperation signal. NC purple state. LIKELY_WIN_R but with some D enthusiasm risk if a strong challenger emerges. Tillis reads as more grounded in his messaging than Collins. EHIQ at 65%.
Opened
April 19, 2026
Expected resolution
November 4, 2026