← All calls
ElectionActive

NC Senate — Tillis retention

Will Thom Tillis (R) retain his North Carolina Senate seat in 2026?

EHIQ
65%
(60-70%)
Polymarket
Edge

Thesis

Tillis won 2020 by 1.7%. EHIQ register read shows confident, grounded register with no desperation signal. NC purple state. LIKELY_WIN_R but with some D enthusiasm risk if a strong challenger emerges. Tillis reads as more grounded in his messaging than Collins. EHIQ at 65%.
Opened
April 19, 2026
Expected resolution
November 4, 2026