ElectionWithdrawn

NC Senate — Tillis retention

Will Thom Tillis (R) retain his North Carolina Senate seat in 2026?

premise not yet verified

EHIQ

65%

(60-70%)

Polymarket

—

Edge

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Thesis

Tillis won 2020 by 1.7%. EHIQ register read shows confident, grounded register with no desperation signal. NC purple state. LIKELY_WIN_R but with some D enthusiasm risk if a strong challenger emerges. Tillis reads as more grounded in his messaging than Collins. EHIQ at 65%.

Opened

April 19, 2026

Expected resolution

November 4, 2026

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