← All calls
ElectionWithdrawnCalibration
Claudia López win (Colombia 2026)
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
5%
(2-8%)
Edge
—
—
The call vs the market, dated
Opened May 10, 2026. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.
Thesis
Polymarket prices López at 0.1% (likely she hasn't formally declared candidacy yet — market is dormant). EHIQ at 5% — wildcard call if right-wing field collapses. López is former Bogotá mayor (2020-2024), centrist-left independent profile, viable consolidator if both Espriella and Valencia fail to consolidate the anti-Petro vote and the moderate center seeks an alternative to Cepeda. Low-probability high-payoff wildcard — only meaningful path is right-wing fragmentation creating a center opening. Caveat: structural-priors, no Colombian TIQ corpus. Polymarket's 0.1% means our +4.9pp edge depends on her declaring + the right collapsing.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
June 21, 2026
Get an alert the moment this call resolves.
Every EHIQ call resolves on a date, in public. Subscribe free and we email you when this one grades, plus the weekly divergence leaderboard.