Glossary

Definitions for every term, state, and score used across EventHorizon IQ.

Sensor States

STABLE

Normal operating conditions. Low volatility, balanced risk appetite. The measured asset or indicator is within its typical range.

RISK_ON

Markets favoring risk assets. Capital flowing into equities, crypto, and high-yield instruments.

BALANCED

No dominant directional bias. Cross-asset flows are roughly even between risk-on and risk-off.

RISING

Stress building. The measured indicator is trending toward elevated levels but has not reached critical thresholds.

RISK_OFF

Capital rotating to safety. Flows moving from equities and crypto into treasuries, gold, and cash.

CRYPTO_LEADING

Crypto markets are leading the macro move. On-chain and exchange data show activity ahead of traditional markets.

MACRO_LEADING

Traditional macro indicators are leading. Rate changes, yield moves, or policy shifts driving before crypto responds.

ELEVATED

Heightened risk. The measured indicator is significantly above normal and warrants attention.

SEVERE

Extreme stress. Conditions at or near historical extremes. Structural dislocation possible.

CAPITULATION

Forced or panic selling detected. On-chain or exchange data shows distressed exits at scale.

EUPHORIA

Extreme bullish sentiment. Leverage, retail inflows, and social metrics at historical highs. Fragile upside.

NEUTRAL

No directional signal. The sensor does not currently detect conditions that map to a directional state.

Scoring Systems

TIQ-ML

The combined scoring engine. TIQ-ML merges TIPS v2 (qualitative earnings analysis, 60% weight) with a macro-context ML model (40% weight). The ML model uses macro conditions (VIX, yields, sector momentum) to modulate conviction — it never overrides the qualitative direction.

TIPS (Tonality Inflection Prediction Score)

A 0–100 score derived from 20 calibrated language patterns in earnings transcripts. Higher scores indicate stronger structural conviction in the company's trajectory. TIPS is the primary signal; the ML model modulates it.

Direction

BULLISH or BEARISH. Derived from qualitative tonality analysis of management language across sequential earnings calls. Not a price prediction — it reflects the structural trajectory of the business.

Conviction

Signal strength as a percentage. Higher conviction means more structural patterns are aligned. A 90% conviction BULLISH signal means nearly all 20 qualitative patterns point in the same direction.

Confidence Gate

The ML model abstains (shows GATED) when its probability is too close to 50/50. This filters out low-confidence predictions. When the gate is active, only the TIPS qualitative score is used.

Inflection Signals

What They Are

Structural turning points detected from patterns in sequential earnings transcripts. When multiple qualitative patterns converge (constraint dissolution, posture shifts, commercial acceleration), the system flags an inflection signal. These are observations, not trade recommendations.

Pattern Types
TROUGH_TRINITYThree-way convergence of constraint dissolution, posture improvement, and commercial acceleration. Indicates structural recovery inflection.
PEAK_TRIFECTAThree-way convergence of constraint tightening, declining posture, and commercial deceleration. Indicates peak exhaustion.
TABLES_TURNReversal pattern where management language shifts direction within 1–2 quarters. Often precedes price inflection.
Severity Levels
NUCLEARHighest conviction. Multiple patterns firing simultaneously with historical precedent.
HIGHStrong signal. Two or more patterns converging with clear directional shift.
MODERATEEarly detection. Pattern emerging but not yet fully confirmed across multiple dimensions.

General Terms

Regime

A persistent market condition that constrains the behavior of assets within it. Regimes are classified by sensors (e.g., VIX regime, Fed policy regime) and change infrequently relative to price.

Arc Type

A classification of a company's multi-quarter trajectory based on qualitative patterns. Arc types range from recovery arcs (Type 1) to cyclical arcs (Type 7) and indicate structural phase, not price direction.

Sensor

An automated classifier that monitors a specific data source (VIX, Treasury yields, on-chain data, etc.) and outputs a regime state with a confidence level.

Immutable Ledger

The append-only record of all sensor state changes. Every reading is timestamped and cannot be edited or deleted after recording. This allows independent verification of EHIQ's track record.

Proposal

A suggestion from the AI agent system for a new sensor or coverage expansion. Proposals are reviewed and approved by humans before implementation.

Delta Pair

Two sequential earnings transcripts from the same company. The qualitative change between them (what shifted in management language) is the core signal.

EventHorizon IQ is an intelligence layer. It provides diagnostic observations, not investment advice, trading signals, or recommendations. All sensor data reflects current conditions at time of recording. Past states do not predict future outcomes. No execution capabilities.