Election
Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election (runoff 2026-10-25)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
EHIQ
80%
on: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket
87%
as of Oct 13 (11h ago)
Divergence
-6.6pp
EHIQ reads a lower probability than Polymarket by 6.6pp.
Provenance: EHIQ registered 80% on Oct 6, 2026, market was 84% at open.
+The argument — why we think itthe thesis and the reasoning behind the call
Starts from the market price (0.842 on 2026-10-06) and a base rate: the first-round leader has won all 7 Brazilian runoffs since 1989. We take 4.2 points off for the risk that the first-round surge overstates momentum, since late minor-candidate flows and polling bias are partly priced in already. Our language read of the candidates is a cross-check only and adds no probability.
Resolution source: Polymarket event 45915 resolution; TSE official count as ground truth
+The evidence — markets, embeds, data notestracked markets, embed code, and the as-of/liveness detail
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premise verified 0h ago