macroPremium/HIGH confidence
Private Credit Stress
Composite stress index for the $3.5T private credit market. Tracks PIK percentage, non-accrual rates, cross-fund portfolio overlap (contagion), BDC NAV discounts, and fund risk distribution from SEC filings. 25% defaults at 40c recovery = $525B systemic losses. States: LOW / MODERATE / ELEVATED / SEVERE / CRITICAL.
MODERATE
4h ago
State History
28 readings|0 state changes|MODERATE: 100%
Track record
MODERATE
2 fires since 2021 · — hit · median 21d +12.1% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
NORMAL
1 fires since 2021 · 100% hit · median 21d +14.6% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.