EventHorizon IQ — Private Credit Intelligence
The Private Credit Stress Report
A forensic analysis of 29 BDCs, 636 PIK-dependent companies, and 1,564 cross-fund contagion nodes. The question isn't whether private credit is stressed — it's which funds break first.
NAV Discount Spectrum — Who's Lying About Book Value?
Market price vs. reported NAV across 29 BDCs. Left = market says assets are worth far less than reported. Right = premium to NAV.
What's Inside the Report
- +29-fund individual risk scores (0-100 scale, 5 dimensions)
- +Monte Carlo simulation results (10,000 iterations, cascade modeling)
- +Cross-fund contagion graph with 1,564 nodes mapped
- +PIK exposure analysis across 636 portfolio companies
- +NAV discount spectrum for all 29 BDCs
- +Early Warning List: 6 funds in SEVERE, 8 in ELEVATED
- +Monitoring framework with quarterly trigger thresholds
- +Systemic risk probability curves ($300B, $400B, $500B thresholds)
Private Credit Stress Report
- +Full 29-fund risk analysis PDF
- +Monte Carlo simulation results
- +Cross-fund contagion graph
- +NAV discount spectrum analysis
- +Early Warning List with trigger levels
- +Delivered via email within 1 hour
Private Credit Intelligence
- +Everything in the Stress Report
- +Quarterly update reports through Q4 2026
- +Updated risk scores as earnings release
- +New contagion graph each quarter
- +Early Warning escalation alerts via email
- +Priority access to institutional research
Institutional License
- +Full Private Credit Intelligence package
- +Custom fund coverage (your portfolio)
- +Direct analyst access with Eric
- +Bespoke contagion modeling
- +Integration with your risk systems
- +White-label reporting option
- +Quarterly strategy calls
- +NDA-protected methodology briefing
Methodology
Based on analysis of 38 earnings transcripts, 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations, and SEC filings for 29 BDCs.
Cross-validated with market NAV discounts, PIK accrual rates, and portfolio overlap mapping. Built on EventHorizon IQ's Tonality IQ engine — 20 calibrated earnings patterns validated across 21 years of market data.
Read the Public Analysis First
We published the framework and key findings on Substack. Read it before you buy — the report goes 10x deeper.
Read on Substack →Frequently Asked Questions
What format is the report delivered in?
PDF, delivered to your email within 1 hour of purchase. The Intelligence tier includes quarterly PDF updates through Q4 2026.
What does the Intelligence tier include beyond the report?
Quarterly updated risk scores as BDCs report earnings, refreshed contagion graphs, updated Monte Carlo projections, and email alerts when any fund crosses a trigger threshold.
How is this different from Moody's or S&P credit ratings?
Rating agencies look backward at financial statements. We analyze forward-looking signals from earnings call language patterns, PIK accrual trends, and cross-fund portfolio overlap that creates hidden contagion risk.
Can I share the report with my team?
The single-user license covers one individual. For team or firm-wide distribution, contact us about the Institutional license.
What if I want coverage of specific funds not in the 29?
The Institutional tier includes custom fund coverage. Contact eric@emjx.ai to discuss your portfolio.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance of analytical frameworks is not indicative of future results. All purchases are final. Refunds considered on a case-by-case basis within 24 hours of delivery.