Olivia Chow re-election (Toronto Mayor 2026)

Polymarket prices Chow at 77% (thin volume $28K — shallow consensus). EHIQ at 68% — 9pp below market, broadly aligned with SEM v1.2 70.45%. Liaison Strategies poll April 17 shows Chow leading Bradford 46-35 among decided voters with 11% Furey, 8% other — meaningfully closer race than the 77% implies. Linguistic-signal analysis of Chow's 2026 budget rollout, Mayor's Notes, and recent pressers shows a calm-confident governing register with high policy specificity (28K rental units, 10K affordable, 4,500 Rent Bank assists, $350M+ Scarborough reserve, 2.2% tax cap, 3rd straight TTC fare freeze), dominant coalition language ("we/together/each other"), and notably low hubris. Soft spot: Scarborough LRT defensiveness ("a report is coming") is the one tell of genuine vulnerability. Migration note interpretation: "model and market are now in agreement at ~70-75%. No call." Net call lands at 68% to acknowledge SEM convergence while preserving modest analyst conservatism.