Olivia Chow re-election (Toronto Mayor 2026)

Polymarket prices Chow at 77% (thin volume ~$28K — shallow consensus). EHIQ at 65% — 12pp below market. Liaison Strategies poll April 17 shows Chow leading Bradford 46-35 among decided voters with 11% Furey, 8% other — meaningfully closer race than the 77% implies. Linguistic-signal analysis of Chow's 2026 budget rollout, Mayor's Notes, and recent pressers shows a calm-confident governing register with high policy specificity (28K rental units, 10K affordable, 4,500 Rent Bank assists, $350M+ Scarborough reserve, 2.2% tax cap, 3rd straight TTC fare freeze), dominant coalition language ('we/together/each other'), and notably low hubris. Soft spot: Scarborough LRT defensiveness ('a report is coming') is the one tell of genuine vulnerability. The linguistic profile is consistent with a higher win probability than 60% structural read alone implies; net call lands at 65%.