← All calls
ElectionActive★ featured
Brad Bradford win (Toronto Mayor 2026)
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
premise verified 0h ago
EHIQ
22%
(19-26%)
Edge
+11.5pp
EHIQ above market
The call vs the market, dated
EHIQ called this at 24% on May 10, 2026 when Polymarket was at 17%. (open reconstructed from the dated thesis record; the original stamp is preserved unedited)
Revised to 22% based on new analysis — see thesis updates below for revision history.
Market has since moved down to 11% · -6.5pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 45 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
The right-of-center math, not the vibe. Bradford's May registration poll put him at 35% of decideds with Furey at 11% and Bailao at 2.3% - a combined lane near 50%, and even partial Furey/Bailao consolidation pushes him toward the mid-40s before any campaign growth. The market is a thin Polymarket book ($28K), which is where analytical edge lives. What keeps us at 22 and not higher: his register is high-conviction but slogan-tier on specifics, the platform still unreleased per TorontoToday - the conviction is real, the plan is not public, and five months is a long time to run on the first and not the second. Resolves Oct 26.
- 1.THESIS REFRESH 2026-09-20: replaced the May text, which quoted a 17% market price against a live 11.5% leg.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
October 26, 2026
Get an alert the moment this call resolves.
Every EHIQ call resolves on a date, in public. Subscribe free and we email you when this one grades, plus the weekly divergence leaderboard.