ElectionActive

US Senate control 2026

Will Democrats control the US Senate after the 2026 midterms?

EHIQ

47%

(43-50%)

Polymarket

48%

live market →

Edge

-0.5pp

within noise

Upstream of markets

EHIQ called this at 47% on April 19, 2026 when Polymarket was at 55%.

Market has since moved down to 48% · -7.5pp from open

EHIQ vs market over time · 11 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

Polymarket prices Dem control at 55% / Rep at 46% (volume $2M+, opened July 2025). EHIQ EHIQ register analysis on candidate language (April 2026 framework reading: "Republicans looking favorable on language") + per-race stress patterns puts Dem control closer to 47%. The map favors Dems on seats-up, but EHIQ register stress signals on Ossoff (GA, 3.631) and Peters (MI, 4.387) offset map advantage. Modest 8pp upstream underprice on Dem control.

Opened

April 19, 2026

Expected resolution

November 4, 2026