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2028 presidency — Tucker Carlson
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US presidential election?
premise last verified 9h ago
EHIQ
2%
(1-4%)
Edge
+0.6pp
within noise
The call vs the market, dated
Opened May 9, 2026. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.
EHIQ vs market over time · 90 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
EHIQ register read DOMINATES the field — strongest primary-stage register of all 7 candidates scored, both parties. Highest personal-anchoring in the corpus, decisive register. IF Tucker runs, he structurally outclasses everyone on rhetorical register. BUT: ~15% he runs × ~30% he wins primary if he does × ~30% wins general (controversy ceiling) = ~1.4%. Polymarket 2.85% basically aligned with EHIQ. Register is one input, not destiny — structural path constraints dominate his probability.
- 1.Tucker register score: highest in entire corpus across both parties. high personal-anchoring — highest of any candidate scored. AmFest 2025 / Deplatforming speech — pure movement-leader register.
- 2.Conditional path: ~15% he runs (no campaign, no donor network, no party infrastructure currently).
- 3.IF he runs: ~30% he wins primary (would need Trump endorsement to overcome Vance institutional advantage; controversy/scandal exposure caps ceiling).
- 4.IF he wins primary: ~30% he wins general (controversy ceiling in suburban + moderate R lanes).
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 7, 2028