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2028 presidency — Josh Shapiro

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US presidential election?

EHIQ
4%
(3-6%)
Polymarket
3%
live market →
Edge
+1.1pp
within noise

Upstream of markets

EHIQ called this at 4% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 3%.
Market still at 3% · 0.0pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
3%4%May 10May 19

Thesis

PA Governor (~13M state population), strong general-election profile in the most pivotal swing state. Polymarket 2.95%. EHIQ slight LONG at 4% based on Pennsylvania structural advantage. Not yet EHIQ register-scored.
  1. 1.Pennsylvania Governor — most pivotal swing state, gives him general-election credibility lane.
  2. 2.Pre-2024 was on Harris VP shortlist; broad-appeal moderate-D positioning.
  3. 3.Path requires breaking through Newsom's operational dominance in early states.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 7, 2028