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ElectionActive
2028 presidency — Kamala Harris
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ
2%
(1-3%)
Edge
-5.0pp
EHIQ below market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 2% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 5%.
Market has since moved up to 7% · +1.2pp toward EHIQ opposite
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
EHIQ register read shows mid-tier register — neither dominant nor weak. 2024 loss is a hard ceiling regardless of register — Dems rarely renominate the immediately-preceding losing nominee. Math: ~3% nominated × ~30% wins general = ~1%. Polymarket 5.4% materially overprices. SHORT cleanest mispricing on the D side.
- 1.Harris register score: high personal-anchoring, decisive register, qualifier rate
- 2.2024 loss creates structural primary ceiling — modern precedent strongly against renomination.
- 3.Polymarket 5.4% likely reflects name-recognition residual + lingering 2024-base loyalty rather than realistic primary path.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 7, 2028