EventHorizonIQ
← All calls
ElectionActive

2028 presidency — Nikki Haley

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US presidential election?

EHIQ
7%
(4-10%)
Polymarket
1%
live market →
Edge
+6.3pp
EHIQ above market

Upstream of markets

EHIQ called this at 7% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 1%.
Market has since moved down to 1% · -0.2pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 57 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
1%7%May 10Jul 5

Thesis

Polymarket extremely low at 0.85%. EHIQ revised UP to 7% from prior 4.5% after SEM v1.2 build. SEM v1.2 R-nomination probability = 15.52% (poll baseline 4-5% × long-lead compression x0.6 toward 50/50 × withdrawal multiplier 0.30). Apples-to-apples presidency: 15.52% × ~60% general electability (highest electability profile in R field — moderate, female, foreign-policy chops) ≈ 9.3%. 50% damping from prior 4.5% baseline: 4.5 + 0.5*(9.3-4.5) ≈ 6.9% → 7%. Path requires Vance collapse OR Trump endorsement redirect — both possible over 2.5 year horizon. INSUFFICIENT_POLLING flag (Haley not consistently included in 2028 R primary trackers).
  1. 1.Prior 2024 R primary candidate — name ID + donor network + Trump-critic positioning.
  2. 2.Highest general-election electability of any R: moderate suburban appeal + foreign-policy gravitas + female.
  3. 3.Path requires Vance collapse OR Trump endorsement redirect — both possible over 2.5 year horizon.
  4. 4.PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22 (PART 2): EHIQ 4.5% → 7% after SEM v1.2 build. New SEM file `sem_us_president_2028_haley.json` / `.prov.json`. SEM v1.2 R-nomination = 15.52% (raw P 3.62% → long-lead compression x0.6 → 22.2% → withdrawal multiplier 0.30 → 15.5%). Apples-to-apples ≈ 15.52% × 60% gen electability ≈ 9.3%. 50% damping from prior 4.5% baseline → 7%. NOT TIQ-scored. INSUFFICIENT_POLLING flag (2028 R primary polling does not consistently include Haley as named option; analyst-supplied 4-5% poll share). Trump-critic positioning + re-run base rate (Reagan 1980 / McCain 2008 / Romney 2012 / Biden 2020 all won post-loss-renomination) supports nomination-path narrowly.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 7, 2028