EventHorizonIQ
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ElectionActive

2028 presidency — Nikki Haley

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US presidential election?

EHIQ
5%
(3-7%)
Polymarket
1%
live market →
Edge
+3.6pp
EHIQ above market

Upstream of markets

EHIQ called this at 5% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 1%.
Market still at 1% · 0.0pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
1%5%May 10May 19

Thesis

Polymarket extremely low at 0.85%. EHIQ math: ~8% nominated × ~60% general (highest electability profile in R field — moderate, female, foreign-policy chops) = ~5%. LONG mispricing. Caveat: not yet EHIQ register-scored — register signal may revise.
  1. 1.Prior 2024 R primary candidate — name ID + donor network + Trump-critic positioning.
  2. 2.Highest general-election electability of any R: moderate suburban appeal + foreign-policy gravitas + female.
  3. 3.Path requires Vance collapse OR Trump endorsement redirect — both possible over 2.5 year horizon.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 7, 2028