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ElectionActive
2028 presidency — Pete Buttigieg
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ
6%
(4-9%)
Edge
+3.9pp
EHIQ above market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 6% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 2%.
Market has since moved up to 2% · +0.1pp toward EHIQ view
EHIQ vs market over time · 57 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
EHIQ register-derived underpriced: Buttigieg has the structurally STRONGEST D primary register in the corpus — materially ahead of Newsom in side-by-side scoring. Polymarket prices him at only 2.05% — a 5x gap vs EHIQ 6%. Math: ~6-10% nominated × ~55-60% wins general (high electability profile) = 3-6%. Polymarket likely overweighting Newsom's operational advantages and underweighting Buttigieg's register strength + general-election profile.
- 1.Buttigieg register score: high personal-anchoring, decisive register, very low qualifier rate. register stress in normal range.
- 2.High general-election electability: Midwest + working-class register + military + governance experience as DOT Secretary.
- 3.Cleanest LONG mispricing on the D side — EHIQ +3 to +4pp upstream of Polymarket on the field-leader-by-register thesis.
- 4.PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22: EHIQ 5% → 6% after SEM v1.2 build. SEM v1.2 D-nomination probability = 27.45% (v1.1 was 19.52%; +9.4pp uplift after long-lead compression + withdrawal multiplier 0.15). Apples-to-apples to presidency: 27.45% × ~55% general electability ≈ 15%. Gap to prior EHIQ 5% = +10pp (at threshold). Long-lead damping per migration-note discipline ("DO NOT cite long-lead probabilities as informed forecasts") moves EHIQ modestly toward SEM: conservative 1pp bump. TIQ specificity Buttigieg 22.99 (MODERATE_CONVICTION; highest D field per 2026-05-22 scoring) directionally supportive but §4 OOS Phase C FAIL (ρ=+0.18, p=0.35) prohibits claiming TIQ-validated.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 7, 2028