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ElectionActive
2028 presidency — Pete Buttigieg
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ
5%
(4-7%)
Edge
+2.8pp
within noise
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 5% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 2%.
Market has since moved up to 2% · +0.2pp toward EHIQ view
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
EHIQ register-derived underpriced: Buttigieg has the structurally STRONGEST D primary register in the corpus — materially ahead of Newsom in side-by-side scoring. Polymarket prices him at only 2.05% — a 5x gap vs EHIQ 5%. Math: ~5-8% nominated × ~60% wins general (high electability profile) = 3-5%. Polymarket likely overweighting Newsom's operational advantages and underweighting Buttigieg's register strength + general-election profile.
- 1.Buttigieg register score: high personal-anchoring, decisive register, very low qualifier rate. register stress in normal range.
- 2.High general-election electability: Midwest + working-class register + military + governance experience as DOT Secretary.
- 3.Cleanest LONG mispricing on the D side — EHIQ +2.5 to +3pp upstream of Polymarket on the field-leader-by-register thesis.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 7, 2028