GameStop acquires eBay (Cohen $125 bid)

TIGHTENED MAY 10 from 10% to 8% after primary linguistic analysis of Cohen's May 4-6 media tour. Polymarket prices Cohen's $125/share ($55.5B) bid for eBay at ~20% to close. EHIQ at 8% — 12pp fade. Primary linguistic evidence from Cohen's CNBC interview May 4 (Becky Quick + Andrew Ross Sorkin): when pressed on the ~$16B funding gap between his half-cash leg ($27.75B) and the TD Securities "highly confident" letter ($20B max), Cohen deflected to "It's on our website" repeatedly, told Quick "I don't understand your question" on shareholder math, and defended the bid by attacking the questioner ("didn't you guys call for GameStop's demise multiple times? ... it's actually doing OK"). A CEO whose strongest defense of a $55.5B unsolicited bid is "actually doing OK" is not closing this deal. Critical own-goal: Cohen told Insider "I wasn't passionate about GameStop. I'm passionate about eBay" — eBay's board can weaponize this against the half-stock leg directly. Plus structural: TD letter has IG-rating condition Moody's pre-flagged as credit-negative (Bloomberg compared to Drexel-era confident letters); eBay board response May 4 attacks "deliverability" not price; Q1 2026 earnings April 29 had zero defensive prep with 14% GMV / 17% revenue growth + agentic AI tailwind narrative; proxy window for June 2026 closed pre-bid; merger-arb desks not engaging (Bloomberg: "Merger Arb Traders Avoid GameStop's Unlikely eBay Takeover"). Why not fade harder to 5%: Cohen has documented stubborn-deployment pattern (Chewy/BBBY/GME), could sweeten and re-bid; the bid puts eBay "in play" — strategic interloper (Amazon/PE/Shopify) could emerge.