CLARITY Act signed into law by Dec 31 2026

Polymarket now ~62%, matching EHIQ — 12pp gap CLOSED pre-resolution (May 12). Original call published Sunday May 10: EHIQ 62% vs Polymarket 74% = -12pp fade. Market converged in 4 days, most of it after the final 309-page text dropped midnight May 11-12. Traders priced in the same friction points we flagged: (1) Gillibrand ethics provision NOT in bill — files amendment by COB May 12 or pulls 4-5 D votes on floor; (2) Title III DeFi materially diverges from House — reconciliation gate (House re-vote or conference); (3) Section 505 tokenization keeps SEC jurisdiction (industry-restrictive); (4) Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin compromise (Section 404) survived bank lobby — locks Alsobrooks; (5) Coindesk predicts 13-11 party-line committee vote; Gallego (D-AZ) flagged as potential swing. Call stays active through Thursday May 14 markup and floor process. Third pre-resolution gap-closure in 72 hours (after Claudia López and Nithya Raman withdrawals) — calibration pattern: when market re-prices to match the framework, the trade is closed even if the resolution event is months away.