Lula da Silva re-election (Brazil 2026)

Polymarket prices Lula at 40.5% ($67.8M deep volume). EHIQ at 38% — small fade. Constitutional clarification: Lula IS eligible (Article 14 §5 two-consecutive-terms — his 2003-2010 was consecutive pair, then gap, now 2023-2026 + 2027-2030 would be new consecutive pair). Key TIQ corpus correction surfaced May 10: Haddad is NOT running for president (left Fazenda March 19 to run São Paulo Governor) and Tarcísio NOT running (committed to SP reelection + endorsed Flávio). PT has no clear successor — P(Lula runs) goes UP because PT needs him; the "Haddad pivot" scenario in original reasoning is invalid. Net: small fade from market reflects (1) Lula 81 years old by election day, (2) 32-37% approval headwinds, (3) lack of PT successor concentrates PT machine pressure on Lula. Caveat: TIQ corpus seed only; primary-source íntegra texts from gov.br/Planalto reconstructed from press excerpts. Native-PT pattern dictionary build pending.