Lula da Silva re-election (Brazil 2026)

REFRESHED Jun 20 2026: Polymarket prices Lula WIN at 51% (market_universe snapshot). EHIQ 58% — now ABOVE market. The May 14 Banco Master scandal (Intercept audio: Flávio negotiating R$134M from Vorcaro to fund a Jair biopic) broke a March dead-heat — post-scandal Quaest Jun +10 first round / +6 runoff, AtlasIntel +7.1 runoff. Off-corridor consolidation check returns INVERSE of Colombia: the establishment vehicle (Lula) HOLDS while the right lane fragments (Flávio scandal-damaged, Renan Santos ~14%, Tarcísio sitting as SP governor, Jair barred) — corridor candidate wins by default. Register asymmetry: Lula prosecutorial/on-offense ("a verdade tarda, mas não falha") vs Flávio defensive deny-then-reframe under load. Capped at 58% for the one real risk: right-wing SUBSTITUTION before the ~Aug registration deadline (a clean Tarcísio polled closer in March). First round Oct 4, runoff Oct 25. PRIOR (pre-scandal, May 10): Constitutional clarification: Lula IS eligible (Article 14 §5 two-consecutive-terms — his 2003-2010 was consecutive pair, then gap, now 2023-2026 + 2027-2030 would be new consecutive pair). Key TIQ corpus correction surfaced May 10: Haddad is NOT running for president (left Fazenda March 19 to run São Paulo Governor) and Tarcísio NOT running (committed to SP reelection + endorsed Flávio). PT has no clear successor — P(Lula runs) goes UP because PT needs him; the "Haddad pivot" scenario in original reasoning is invalid. Net: small fade from market reflects (1) Lula 81 years old by election day, (2) 32-37% approval headwinds, (3) lack of PT successor concentrates PT machine pressure on Lula. Caveat: TIQ corpus seed only; primary-source íntegra texts from gov.br/Planalto reconstructed from press excerpts. Native-PT pattern dictionary build pending.